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Risk and Volatility History of Southwest Bell Communications Stock Price

Chapter II: Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans.

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Daily Volatility = Price Range as a percent of the daily average price.

This chart shows Volatility for Southwest Bell Communications, defined to be the price range as a portion of the average price:

So, to derive the Daily Volatility on 11/30/2005 of 2.1%, the price range for the day (0.55) was divided by the average price (25.07). The Daily Volatility is obtained by dividing the daily range by the daily average. A longer Volatility period such as Weekly Volatility is obtained by dividing the weekly price range by the weekly mean price. It is important to avoid confusing this with the weekly average of the daily volatility, which is a completely different concept.

The red plot shows the actual price. The remaining marks on the plot correspond to the Volatility measured across several time intervals.

Investors often make a distinction between the concept of Volatility, and the concept of Risk. Academics define them to be exactly equivalent, but as can be seen here, there is good reason to distinguish between the levels of volatility or risk experienced across different time frames. Average Daily Volatility over the history of SBC has been 2% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 19%.



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Volatility Curve

If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". These Volatility Curves each apply to a discrete time interval. As the timespan across which Volatility is measured increases, the Volatility is expected to increase. The relationship between the length of time, and the expected change in price, is not linear, as is demonstrated by this chart.



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Daily Volatility Histogram

A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram.



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Quarterly Volatility Histogram

Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here.

For Subscribers: Refined Analysis of Southwest Bell Communications Volatility and Risk Behavior

Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for SBC :


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Next Chapter 3:

Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle.

Go To Chapter III