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Risk and Volatility History of Nextel Stock Price

Chapter II: Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown.

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Daily Volatility = Price Range as a percent of the daily average price.

This chart shows Volatility for Nextel, defined to be the price range as a portion of the average price:

For instance, on 8/12/2005 the average price was 34.31 with a range of 2.02, indicating a Daily Volatility of 5.8%. Daily Volatility (the daily range as a portion of the daily average price) is plotted in green. Blue is Weekly Volatility, which is the weekly range as a portion of the weekly average price. This is a different concept from the weekly average of daily volatility.

The red plot shows the actual price. The remaining marks on the plot correspond to the Volatility measured across several time intervals.

Investors often make a distinction between the concept of Volatility, and the concept of Risk. Academics define them to be exactly equivalent, but as can be seen here, there is good reason to distinguish between the levels of volatility or risk experienced across different time frames. Average Daily Volatility over the history of NXTL has been 5% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 46%.



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Volatility Curve

If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". These Volatility Curves each apply to a discrete time interval. As the timespan across which Volatility is measured increases, the Volatility is expected to increase. However, as seen in this plot of the NXTL Volatility Curve, the increase is not constant.



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Daily Volatility Histogram

A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram.



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Quarterly Volatility Histogram

Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here.

For Subscribers: Refined Analysis of Nextel Volatility and Risk Behavior

Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for NXTL :


Public Pages : More NXTL Technical Analysis Chalk-Talk Subjects

NXTL Price Forecasts

NXTL Traditional Time Series Analysis

Momentum Investing

Multi-Spectral Analysis

Political Season Trends NXTL

NXTL Transaction Volume Trends

NXTL Calendar Seasonality

Investor Sentiment

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Next Chapter 3:

This section shows historical volumes for sales of NXTL stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume.

Go To Chapter III