Sentiment Analysis based on Historical Prices and Volumes of TWX common stock.

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Negative Volume Index (NVI) is a traditional Sentiment Indicator for AOL Time Warner. This modern version makes use of several enhancements added by Norman Fosback. The indicator is the proportion of the daily NVI as compared to the average daily NVI over the past year. The plot is orange below the unity line (neutral implication) and green above (bullish).

Interpreting the Calibrated NVI for AOL Time Warner:

The NVI is an elegant indicator based on sound principles but it should not be interpreted in a simplistic manner. The orange plot (NVI less than unity) is not considered bearish because a lowering of the NVI is a natural tendancy under many market conditions. When the plot is in the green area, it indicates that prices are rising on low volume sessions, which is contrary to the normal condition. This can be a tip off to "accumulation behaviour" on the part of someone or some group in the market. The indicator seems most significant when prices are falling and the NVI is rising, which indicates a market that is "buying on the dips".

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Because the NVI operates over a somewhat longer time frame than most technical indicators, it is of interest to track it over a longer period to get a feeling for how it works. This chart for AOL Time Warner covers the few years before the start of the chart at the top of the page.

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Values above the midline indicate that day traders have positive feelings toward TWX while traces below the midline are a sign that speculators are afraid to hold on to the issue overnight. AOL Time Warner stock prices are shown in red.

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Here the blue indicates the proportion between Up Volume and Down Volume. Again, the horizontal blue line represents the neutral point. AOL Time Warner share prices are overlaid in red. This is an important indicator for market timing, as a change in direction of the volume line may happen before the price turns.

For Clients: More Market Sentiment Analysis of AOL Time Warner

Influence of Investor Sentiment on TWX stock prices. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators:

Public Pages : More TWX Technical Analysis Chalk-Talk Subjects

TWX Price Forecasts

TWX Traditional Time Series Analysis

Moving Averages and MACD Indicators

Multi-Spectral Analysis

Political Season Trends TWX

TWX Transaction Volume Trends

TWX Analysis of Short Term and Long Term Risk

TWX Calendar Seasonality

Back to TWX Index Page

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Next Chapter 1:

This look at AOL Time Warner begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters.