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Chapter X: Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward PGR.


Sentiment Analysis based on Historical Prices and Volumes of PGR common stock.



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PGR: Week-end Altitude

For The Progressive Corporation, the Negative Volume Index is a well known indicator for market sentiment. This modern version makes use of several enhancements added by Norman Fosback. The indicator is the proportion of the daily NVI as compared to the average daily NVI over the past year. The plot is orange below the unity line (neutral implication) and green above (bullish).





What to look for in an NVI plot for The Progressive Corporation:

The NVI is an elegant indicator based on sound principles but it should not be interpreted in a simplistic manner. The orange plot (NVI less than unity) is not considered bearish because a lowering of the NVI is a natural tendancy under many market conditions. When the plot is in the green area, it indicates that prices are rising on low volume sessions, which is contrary to the normal condition. This can be a tip off to "accumulation behaviour" on the part of someone or some group in the market. The indicator seems most significant when prices are falling and the NVI is rising, which indicates a market that is "buying on the dips".




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Negative Volume Index (Fosback NVI) of The Progressive Corporation

Because the NVI operates over a somewhat longer time frame than most technical indicators, it is of interest to track it over a longer period to get a feeling for how it works. This chart for The Progressive Corporation covers the few years before the start of the chart at the top of the page.




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Weekly Average Closing Altitude of The Progressive Corporation

Values above the midline indicate that day traders have positive feelings toward PGR while traces below the midline are a sign that speculators are afraid to hold on to the issue overnight. The Progressive Corporation stock prices are shown in red.






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Daily Up Volume vs Down Volume of The Progressive Corporation

Here the blue indicates the proportion between Up Volume and Down Volume. Again, the horizontal blue line represents the neutral point. The Progressive Corporation share prices are overlaid in red. This is an important indicator for market timing, as a change in direction of the volume line may happen before the price turns.




For Clients: More Market Sentiment Analysis of The Progressive Corporation

Influence of Investor Sentiment on PGR stock prices. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators:

Public Pages : More PGR Technical Analysis Chalk-Talk Subjects

PGR Price Forecasts

PGR Traditional Time Series Analysis

Momentum Investing

Multi-Spectral Analysis

Political Season Trends PGR

PGR Transaction Volume Trends

PGR Analysis of Short Term and Long Term Risk

PGR Calendar Seasonality

Back to PGR Index Page


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We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who invest in common stock will lose money. We do not advocate speculation in mutual funds or index funds. Pages on this site are for entertainment and academic purposes only. Charts and concepts are property of Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. Content is Copyright 2010 by Hybrid Technical




Next Chapter 1:

Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for The Progressive Corporation, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections.


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