Chapter X: Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward MO. |
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| One commonly consulted gauge of the mood of the market for Philip Morris is the Negative Volume Index. This modern version makes use of several enhancements added by Norman Fosback. The indicator is the proportion of the daily NVI as compared to the average daily NVI over the past year. The plot is orange below the unity line (neutral implication) and green above (bullish). |
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Interpreting the Calibrated NVI for Philip Morris: In its modern form, the NVI is an elegant indicator, but requires some care in interpretation. The orange plot (NVI less than unity) is not considered bearish because a lowering of the NVI is a natural tendancy under many market conditions. When the plot is in the green area, it indicates that prices are rising on low volume sessions, which is contrary to the normal condition. This can be a tip off to "accumulation behaviour" on the part of someone or some group in the market. The indicator seems most significant when prices are falling and the NVI is rising, which indicates a market that is "buying on the dips". |
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| The NVI resembles a fundamental indicator more than a technical indicator in at least one respect, as it seems to be indicative over a span of months or quarters, rather then the extremely short predictive span typical of many technical signals. This chart for Philip Morris covers the few years before the start of the chart at the top of the page. |
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| Values above the midline indicate that day traders have positive feelings toward MO while traces below the midline are a sign that speculators are afraid to hold on to the issue overnight. Philip Morris stock prices are shown in red. |
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| Here the blue indicates the proportion between Up Volume and Down Volume. Again, the horizontal blue line represents the neutral point. Philip Morris share prices are overlaid in red. This is an important indicator for market timing, as a change in direction of the volume line may happen before the price turns. |
Influence of Investor Sentiment on MO stock prices. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |