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Chapter X: The mood of the market toward Lucent Technologies show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators.


Sentiment Analysis based on Historical Prices and Volumes of LU common stock.



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LU:  Week-end Altitude

One commonly consulted gauge of the mood of the market for Lucent Technologies is the Negative Volume Index. This version is includes several enhancements suggested by Norman Fosback. The plot is the proportion of the daily NVI as compared to the past year's average daily NVI. The plot is orange below the unity line (neutral implication) and green above (bullish).





Interpreting the Calibrated NVI for Lucent Technologies:

In its modern form, the NVI is an elegant indicator, but requires some care in interpretation. The orange plot (NVI less than unity) is not considered bearish because a lowering of the NVI is a natural tendancy under many market conditions. When the plot is in the green area, it indicates that prices are rising on low volume sessions, which is contrary to the normal condition. This can be a tip off to "accumulation behaviour" on the part of someone or some group in the market. The indicator seems most significant when prices are falling and the NVI is rising, which indicates a market that is "buying on the dips".




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Negative Volume Index (Fosback NVI) of Lucent Technologies

Because the NVI operates over a somewhat longer time frame than most technical indicators, it is of interest to track it over a longer period to get a feeling for how it works. This chart for Lucent Technologies covers the few years before the start of the chart at the top of the page.




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Weekly Average Closing Altitude of Lucent Technologies

Values above the midline indicate that day traders have positive feelings toward LU while traces below the midline are a sign that speculators are afraid to hold on to the issue overnight. Lucent Technologies stock prices are shown in red.






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LU:  Daily Up Volume vs Down Volume

Here the blue indicates the proportion between Up Volume and Down Volume. Again, the horizontal blue line represents the neutral point. Lucent Technologies share prices are overlaid in red. This is an important indicator for market timing, as a change in direction of the volume line may happen before the price turns.




For Clients: More Market Sentiment Analysis of Lucent Technologies

Influence of Investor Sentiment on LU stock prices. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators:

Public Pages : More LU Technical Analysis Chalk-Talk Subjects

LU Price Forecasts

LU Traditional Time Series Analysis

Moving Averages and MACD Indicators

Multi-Spectral Analysis

Political Season Trends LU

LU Transaction Volume Trends

LU Analysis of Short Term and Long Term Risk

LU Calendar Seasonality

Back to LU Index Page


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We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who invest in common stock will lose money. We do not advocate speculation in mutual funds or index funds. Pages on this site are for entertainment and academic purposes only. Charts and concepts are property of Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. Content is Copyright 2008 by Hybrid Technical




Next Chapter 1:

An introductory chapter looks at the price history of LU by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis.


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