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Chapter X: Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward CPN.


Sentiment Analysis based on Historical Prices and Volumes of CPN common stock.



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CPN: Week-end Altitude

Negative Volume Index (NVI) is a traditional Sentiment Indicator for Calpine. This modern version makes use of several enhancements suggested by Norman Fosback. The plot is the proportion of the daily NVI as compared to the past year's average daily NVI. The plot is orange below the unity line (neutral implication) and green above (bullish).





How to read the Calibrated NVI for Calpine:

The NVI is an elegant indicator based on sound principles but it should not be interpreted in a simplistic manner. The orange plot (NVI less than unity) is not considered bearish because a lowering of the NVI is a natural tendancy under many market conditions. When the plot is in the green area, it indicates that prices are rising on low volume sessions, which is contrary to the normal condition. This can be a tip off to "accumulation behaviour" on the part of someone or some group in the market. The indicator seems most significant when prices are falling and the NVI is rising, which indicates a market that is "buying on the dips".




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CPN: Negative Volume Index (Fosback NVI)

Because the NVI operates over a somewhat longer time frame than most technical indicators, it is of interest to track it over a longer period to get a feeling for how it works. This chart for Calpine covers the few years before the start of the chart at the top of the page.




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Weekly Average Closing Altitude of Calpine

Values above the midline indicate that day traders have positive feelings toward CPN while traces below the midline are a sign that speculators are afraid to hold on to the issue overnight. Calpine stock prices are shown in red.






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Daily Up Volume vs Down Volume of Calpine

Here the blue indicates the proportion between Up Volume and Down Volume. Again, the horizontal blue line represents the neutral point. Calpine share prices are overlaid in red. This is an important indicator for market timing, as a change in direction of the volume line may happen before the price turns.




For Clients: More Market Sentiment Analysis of Calpine

Influence of Investor Sentiment on CPN stock prices. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators:

Public Pages : More CPN Technical Analysis Chalk-Talk Subjects

CPN Price Forecasts

CPN Traditional Time Series Analysis

Momentum Investing

Multi-Spectral Analysis

Political Season Trends CPN

CPN Transaction Volume Trends

CPN Analysis of Short Term and Long Term Risk

CPN Calendar Seasonality

Back to CPN Index Page


Associates of Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here. Material in publicly viewable areas has been been delayed. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited.


We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who invest in common stock will lose money. We do not advocate speculation in mutual funds or index funds. Pages on this site are for entertainment and academic purposes only. Charts and concepts are property of Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. Content is Copyright 2008 by Hybrid Technical




Next Chapter 1:

Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for Calpine, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections.


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