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Sentiment Analysis based on Historical Prices and Volumes of AMR common stock.



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AMR:  Week-end Altitude

A well known sentiment indicator is the NVI or Negative Volume Index for American Airlines. This version is includes several enhancements suggested by Norman Fosback. The plot is the proportion of the daily NVI as compared to the past year's average daily NVI. The plot is orange below the unity line (neutral implication) and green above (bullish).





Interpreting the Calibrated NVI for American Airlines:

The NVI is an elegant indicator based on sound principles but it should not be interpreted in a simplistic manner. The orange plot (NVI less than unity) is not considered bearish because a lowering of the NVI is a natural tendancy under many market conditions. When the plot is in the green area, it indicates that prices are rising on low volume sessions, which is contrary to the normal condition. This can be a tip off to "accumulation behaviour" on the part of someone or some group in the market. The indicator seems most significant when prices are falling and the NVI is rising, which indicates a market that is "buying on the dips".




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AMR:  Negative Volume Index (Fosback NVI)

The NVI resembles a fundamental indicator more than a technical indicator in at least one respect, as it seems to be indicative over a span of months or quarters, rather then the extremely short predictive span typical of many technical signals. This chart for American Airlines covers the few years before the start of the chart at the top of the page.




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Weekly Average Closing Altitude of American Airlines

Values above the midline indicate that day traders have positive feelings toward AMR while traces below the midline are a sign that speculators are afraid to hold on to the issue overnight. American Airlines stock prices are shown in red.






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Daily Up Volume vs Down Volume of American Airlines

Here the blue indicates the proportion between Up Volume and Down Volume. Again, the horizontal blue line represents the neutral point. American Airlines share prices are overlaid in red. This is an important indicator for market timing, as a change in direction of the volume line may happen before the price turns.




For Clients: More Market Sentiment Analysis of American Airlines

Influence of Investor Sentiment on AMR stock prices. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators:

Public Pages : More AMR Technical Analysis Chalk-Talk Subjects

AMR Price Forecasts

AMR Traditional Time Series Analysis

Momentum Investing

Multi-Spectral Analysis

Political Season Trends AMR

AMR Transaction Volume Trends

AMR Analysis of Short Term and Long Term Risk

AMR Calendar Seasonality

Back to AMR Index Page


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We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who invest in common stock will lose money. We do not advocate speculation in mutual funds or index funds. Pages on this site are for entertainment and academic purposes only. Charts and concepts are property of Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. Content is Copyright 2008 by Hybrid Technical




Next Chapter 1:

This look at American Airlines begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters.


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