Section I:This look at AOL Time Warner begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See TWX Classical Analysis.Section II:Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See TWX Short Term Risk.Section IV:The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See TWX Calendar Year Trends.Section V:Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of AOL Time Warner prices. See Average Indicators.Section VI:Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See RSI Indicators.Section VII:A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to TWX historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Stock Prices and Politics for TWX.Section VIII:A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.Section IX:Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Price-Volume Momentum.Section X:Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward TWX. See Investor Mood.Section XI:The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.Section XII:Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.Section XIII:Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of TWX prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance Surfaces.Section XIV:Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Multi-dimensional Price Behaviors.Section XVI:Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to TWX over the next few months? See TWX Share Price Forecasts. |