Section I:This look at Merck begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See MRK Classical Analysis.Section II:Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See MRK Short Term Risk.Section IV:A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Merck Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See MRK Calendar Year Trends.Section V:Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Merck prices. See Average Indicators.Section VI:Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in MRK stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See RSI Indicators.Section VII:This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Stock Prices and Politics for MRK.Section VIII:Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of MRK stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.Section IX:A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Price-Volume Momentum.Section X:The mood of the market toward Merck show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Investor Mood.Section XI:This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.Section XII:Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.Section XIII:Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance Surfaces.Section XIV:Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Multi-dimensional Price Behaviors.Section XVI:Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to MRK over the next few months? See MRK Share Price Forecasts. |