Section I:An introductory chapter looks at the price history of MO by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See MO Classical Analysis.Section II:Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See MO Short Term Risk.Section IV:The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See MO Calendar Year Trends.Section V:Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Philip Morris prices. See Average Indicators.Section VI:Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See RSI Indicators.Section VII:Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Stock Prices and Politics for MO.Section VIII:A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.Section IX:Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Price-Volume Momentum.Section X:The mood of the market toward Philip Morris show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Investor Mood.Section XI:The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.Section XII:The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.Section XIII:Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance Surfaces.Section XIV:The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Philip Morris historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Multi-dimensional Price Behaviors.Section XVI:Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See MO Share Price Forecasts. |