Section I:This look at Caterpillar begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See CAT Classical Analysis.Section II:This survey looks at historical volatility of Caterpillar prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See CAT Short Term Risk.Section IV:A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Caterpillar Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See CAT Calendar Year Trends.Section V:One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Caterpillar prices. See Average Indicators.Section VI:Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See RSI Indicators.Section VII:Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Stock Prices and Politics for CAT.Section VIII:A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.Section IX:Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Price-Volume Momentum.Section X:The mood of the market toward Caterpillar show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Investor Mood.Section XI:The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.Section XII:The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.Section XIII:Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of CAT prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance Surfaces.Section XIV:Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Multi-dimensional Price Behaviors.Section XVI:Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to CAT over the next few months? See CAT Share Price Forecasts. |