Section I:An introductory chapter looks at the price history of AYE by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See AYE Classical Analysis.Section II:Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See AYE Short Term Risk.Section IV:The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See AYE Calendar Year Trends.Section V:One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Allegheny Energy, Inc. prices. See Average Indicators.Section VI:Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in AYE stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See RSI Indicators.Section VII:Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Stock Prices and Politics for AYE.Section VIII:Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of AYE stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.Section IX:A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Price-Volume Momentum.Section X:Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward AYE. See Investor Mood.Section XI:The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.Section XII:The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.Section XIII:Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of AYE prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance Surfaces.Section XIV:Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Multi-dimensional Price Behaviors.Section XVI:Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See AYE Share Price Forecasts. |