Chapter XIV: Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to AOL over the next few months? |
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| AOL historical prices (in red on left side) and several types of predictions are depicted here. Predictions may be ceilings (expected maximum prices), or floors (predicted support levels), in addition to the usual target predictions. Colors of the horizontal bars denote the prediction type, with ceilings in orange, support in green, and target prices in red. Duration of the prediction target period is shown by the length of the horizontal lines. |
AOL Time Warner - Recent Technical Signals
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| Predictions made from the previous quarter are filled out in this chart, as an indication of accuracy. |
| Prediction #1 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: D.B. Veblen | Prediction: Ceiling Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| Nearest Volumetric Price Ceiling | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $32.50 |
| Prediction #2 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: D.B. Veblen | Prediction: Support Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| Nearest Volumetric Price Floor | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $14.00 |
| Prediction #3 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: D.B. Veblen | Prediction: Ceiling Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| Volumetric Mean As Ceiling | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $34.25 |
| Prediction #4 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: E.S. Chase | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $21.56 |
| Prediction #5 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: S.A. Chi | Prediction: Ceiling Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| Upper limit of typical Volatility | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $20.15 |
| Prediction #6 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: S.A. Chi | Prediction: Support Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| Lower limit of typical Volatility | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $11.73 |
| Prediction #7 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: T. Pearson | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| Political Calendar Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $18.62 |
| Prediction #8 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| Raw Least Squares Trend | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $16.70 |
| Prediction #9 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| Deseasonalized Least Squares Trend | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $16.70 |
| Prediction #10 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| Deseasonalized 5 Year Linear Trend | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $14.96 |
| Prediction #11 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| Full History Least Squares Trend with Seasonal Adjustment | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $17.90 |
| Prediction #12 for AOL | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 10/15/2003 |
| 5 Year Linear Trend with Seasonal Adjustment | Target Date: 1/11/04 | |
| Base Price: $15.69 | Target Price: $16.04 |
| Note: Predictions may conflict with one another because they from several sources. The next page rates the reliability of each prediction source against the historical record, and gives a final composite prediction which is weighted according to the previous success of predictions from the individual analyst. |
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Trend reversals at various price levels form the color scheme for the background of this chart. As prices cross levels with diferent characteristics, the rate of the price movement will be changed or even reversed. For more details of these maps, see Support and Resistance. |
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| Price Behavior Surfaces are a way to visualize the forces that act upon the price through time. The illustration above shows the surface for AOL Time Warner from two different angles.These surfaces illustrate the imbalance between competing forces of fear and greed and the effect that they exert on the direction of the price line. For more about these surfaces, click here. |
For Subscribers: Refined Predictions for AOL Time WarnerRefined Stock Price Predictions for AOL : |